Electability & the top-two math

How the top-two primary works

Under Proposition 14, which California voters passed in 2010, every qualified candidate for state and federal office other than president appears on a single primary ballot regardless of party. The two candidates with the most votes — by raw vote total — advance to the November general election, and party affiliation plays no role in qualification. Write-in candidates do not advance, and there is no mechanism reserving a general-election slot for the runner-up from any particular party. If the top two finishers happen to share a party, the November ballot is a same-party contest. This has been the rule for every statewide and congressional primary in California since June 2012.

A practical consequence is that how evenly each party”s vote divides among its candidates can matter as much as the party”s overall share: a bloc that concentrates its vote behind one or two candidates converts it into high individual totals, while a bloc that spreads a larger share across many candidates produces lower ones. In 2026, 24 Democrats and 12 Republicans filed for governor, with roughly six Democrats and two Republicans generally treated as viable.

The registration backdrop

According to the California Secretary of State”s 60-day report, registration as of April 2026 stood at about 44.9% Democratic, 25.0% Republican and 22.8% No Party Preference, with the remainder spread across smaller parties. Democrats therefore outregister Republicans by roughly 20 points and sit just short of an outright majority of registered voters. The large No Party Preference share — voters who may participate in the gubernatorial primary — adds a sizable, less party-predictable pool to the electorate.

Past California top-two results illustrate how registration translates into outcomes:

• 2014 and 2018 governor, 2012 and 2022 Senate: one Democrat and one Republican advanced. In 2018, Gavin Newsom (33.8%) and Republican John Cox (26.2%) finished ahead of Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa (13.5%).
• 2016 and 2018 Senate: two Democrats advanced. The 2016 open Senate race sent Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez to November; the strongest Republican drew 7.8%, and ten Republicans combined for 27.9%.
• 2024 Senate: Adam Schiff (D) and Steve Garvey (R) advanced over Katie Porter (D), in a race where a Schiff-aligned super PAC spent heavily on ads that raised Garvey”s profile.

Two patterns stand out from this short history. A statewide contest in which two Republicans advanced has not occurred under top-two; the closest was the 2016 Senate race, where no single Republican reached 8%. Same-party finals between two Democrats have happened twice in statewide races (the 2016 and 2018 Senate elections) but never in a governor”s race. Cross-party ad spending — such as the 2024 effort that elevated Garvey — is a documented feature of how some campaigns have approached the format.

What the head-to-head numbers show

As of late May, no published general-election poll exists for any specific November pairing. This is typical of the top-two calendar: pollsters generally wait until the primary identifies the matchup before fielding general-election surveys, and the earliest credible November numbers tend to appear in mid-June, with PPIC”s September statewide survey serving as a common benchmark.

Structural data is what is available in the interim. California has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006, and the current registration ratio is among the most lopsided in the state”s modern history. In 2018, under broadly similar conditions, Newsom defeated Cox by 23.7 points. The race for 2026 is currently rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato”s Crystal Ball. For the primary itself, PPIC”s February survey described a five-way contest with 10-13% undecided, and the California Democratic Party”s mid-May poll put Steve Hilton at 22%, Xavier Becerra at 21%, Tom Steyer at 15% and Chad Bianco at 10%.

Each candidate”s general-election case

The following describes commonly cited strengths and vulnerabilities for the field”s more prominent candidates; it is not a prediction of who advances.

• Xavier Becerra (D): Former HHS secretary and state attorney general, described as a competent administrator with a centrist profile and potential appeal to college-educated suburban voters; he would be the first Latino governor since 1875. Cited vulnerabilities: a former associate”s guilty plea in a matter involving a dormant state account in his name (in which he was named a victim, not charged), his COVID-era health record, and a long Washington-Sacramento resume that invites an “insider” contrast.
• Tom Steyer (D): A climate-focused billionaire able to self-fund advertising at scale, with relationships among Black and young voters from prior organizing. Cited vulnerabilities: his Farallon Capital hedge-fund record, a “billionaire trying to buy the office” attack line, and limited crossover appeal tied in part to his earlier “Need to Impeach” campaign.
• Katie Porter (D): A former congresswoman with a national brand from viral oversight hearings and a record of winning competitive Orange County districts, often credited with strong crossover potential among suburban and women voters. Cited vulnerabilities: “extreme progressive” framing, her 2024 Senate primary loss, and limited executive experience.
• Antonio Villaraigosa (D): A former Los Angeles mayor with building-trades labor ties and Latino appeal, polling in the low single digits. Cited vulnerabilities: a past personal controversy, his LAUSD record, and later lobbying work.
• Matt Mahan (D): The San Jose mayor, who casts himself as a moderate pragmatist (“not MAGA and not more of the same”) and is credited with high theoretical crossover appeal, paired with limited statewide name recognition and one term of executive experience.
• Tony Thurmond (D): The state superintendent of public instruction, polling in the low single digits, with a profile centered on education.
• Steve Hilton (R): A British-American former Fox News personality running on a “Califordable” affordability message, as he describes it. He has higher name recognition than Cox did in 2018 but also higher negatives, and his Trump endorsement is generally read as an asset in the primary and a liability statewide.
• Chad Bianco (R): The Riverside County sheriff, whose law-enforcement brand is considered stronger in the Central Valley and Inland Empire than in the coastal metros where most voters live. His past Oath Keepers membership and positions on vaccine mandates and abortion are cited as coastal vulnerabilities.

Why the second slot is uncertain

The identity of the top finisher is, in most readings of the May polling, less in question than the identity of the second. Because top-two counts raw votes across all candidates, the party makeup of the two finalists is a mechanical product of how the vote distributes, and three combinations are arithmetically possible.

• One Democrat and one Republican. With Republican support concentrated across two candidates and Democratic support divided among six, a leading Democrat and a leading Republican can each clear the rest of the field. This is the pattern California governor”s races have followed under top-two to date.
• Two Democrats. If a second Democrat consolidates enough support to finish ahead of every Republican — and the Republican vote stays divided — both finalists are Democrats. Same-party Democratic finals have occurred in statewide Senate races but not in a governor”s race.
• Two Republicans. If the two Republicans together draw more votes than any single Democrat while the Democratic vote remains spread across many candidates, both finalists are Republicans. This combination has not occurred in a California statewide race under top-two.

Which combination materializes turns on a handful of measurable factors in the closing weeks: whether Democratic support consolidates or stays divided, how the Republican vote splits between Hilton and Bianco, the composition of returning mail ballots, relative turnout among each party”s base in a low-turnout June primary, and late advertising. The California GOP”s April convention vote, in which neither Bianco (49%) nor Hilton (44%) reached the 60% endorsement threshold, indicates the Republican field was not consolidated behind one candidate. Late deciders in low-information primaries also tend to break toward perceived front-runners. Final pre-election polling, including Berkeley IGS”s expected late-May release, is generally the most informative remaining signal, and California primaries have historically moved only modestly in the final week absent a discrete event.